New technologies tend to follow different trajectories of hype, hope, and despair as they are discovered by different groups of people and finally adopted (or ignored) by consumers. Gartner actually goes ahead and charts this hype cycle for different technologies. Its latest hype cycle for 2008, shown above, is making the rounds. (It was released in July, but is just now reaching the upward trajectory in its own cycle). According to Gartner’s view of the world, the visibility of new technologies peaks early as initial excitement gains steam. This phase is followed by a “trough of disillusionment” in which inflated expectations hit reality. But as technologies prove themselves, their visibility begins to grow again at a more measured pace.
Of course, not all technologies go through these phases. Some just drop of the face of the Earth never to be heard from again; some wander around for years and don’t hit their hype cycle until later in life, and some build visibility at a steadier pace. But it is still a useful visual metaphor, especially for high-profile technologies that do exhibit these traits.
So where are we in the hype cycle exactly? Some technologies still moving towards the “peak of inflated expectations” include cloud computing, microblogging, and 3-D printing. Public Virtual Worlds, RFID, Web 2.0, and Wikis are troughing. And emerging into the “slope of enlightenment” are Tablet PCs (oh, yeah) and location-aware applications (thank you, iPhone).
What else belongs on the hype cycle, and where would you put it?
Curve looks like CO2 fluctuation, over the last 500 million years:
http://tinyurl.com/5ufe2k
Nobody is ever going to both to ask what the spreadsheet data that made this chart comes from?
http://www.gartner.com/Display.....g_SiteLink
Price: US$1,995.00
Pages: 38
I’m going to pass on buying this wonderful data. Graphs are supposed to illustrate something and provide meaningful insight to make some sort of plan. This chart does nothing and looks like graphics on one of those fake panels on the Enterprise in Star Trek.
User-generated video is probably rising from the trough and moving into the “raised arm” as it leaves the initial hype and finds mass adoption and forces the incumbents now to find revenue streams for it.
So where does Yahoo fit on this curve right now? They are dumping 360 and keep telling how they are “rewiring” Yahoo from the ground up and show off vaporware like their Universal Profile System. Some substance would be nice.
WTF? Specific companies are not part of this curve, it is about certain technology “spaces”. Yahoo is in a number of these niches (eg. location aware= fire eagle).
Name one company you see listed on the curve:
“Erasable Paper” = Xerox
“Mobile Robots” = iRobot
“Surface Computers” = Microsoft
“Microblogging” = Twitter
“Electronic Paper” = eInk
The Slope of Enlightenment is where the idea sells enough product that others are attracted to the business opportunity. The left part of the curve is research projects, academic papers, and speculation.
Total Fucking Failure!
This was a question about what is ON the curve, not “what can you imply”, you dumb ass.
I thought any test like this would include the demonstration by a technology that it can generate a sustainable stream of revenue…
Like web 2.0, the chart is much about nothing…
Missing is Federated Identity Management and OpenID…
Interested to hear where you would put “lifestreaming” on this timeline? I think it’s still climbing the technology trigger phase but that it will quickly mainstream itself as it embeds itself into sites and services as a feature, not a standalone produt.
While we can endlessly argue about the positions of quite a few of the technologies plotted on the graph, I am more interested in the conceptual framework here.
For instance, which is the best phase for a startup to focus on a technology?
If the startup is looking to build a first mover advantage and get a high valuation, it should probably target the two pre-disillusionment phases.
On the other hand, if the startup is looking to build a sustainable business, probably the two post-disillusionment phases are ideal.
Location-aware services are a good example of this thinking. In a post-iPhone world, many of these services may find sustainable business models which were simply not available a few years back.
Facebook deserves it’s own category, and it has spiked beyond the visible top of the graph (with a light blue dot : ) )
This graph is pretty but is also pretty useless. Why can’t he just say that all technology has an initial hype, then a let down, then a gradual increase to productivity and acceptance?
Where are you at? Near the web 2.0 dot… whatever that means.
Funny how the comments are lame. This is a graph showing thevarious technologies that have been talked about and where they have ended up in terms of their longevity and or purpose.
Yahoo is not a technology nor is Facebook a technology so be aware of what you are stating. Tablet PC has morphed into TOuch screen based PC’s. HP has invested heavily into this area of technology based on the iphones success.
The comments thus far are expected from the kind of people who read these pages.
This is not meant for geeks in the trenches but more so for the Suits who make M&A deals and are looking to see where they can make a quick buck.
“This is not meant for geeks in the trenches but more so for the Suits who make M&A deals and are looking to see where they can make a quick buck.”
Right. There is no need for meaningful information when making M&A deals.
yes,web service is growing. like cityquery.com
http://www.cityquery.com
Gartner, who produced this graph, is a consulting company that is much about nothing itself, like so many others of its kind.
They need to show how they understand the life cycle of the various technologies, but when you take a closer look at any one of them, they are usually clueless.
They still manage to get paying clients for their “listening to the clients, then repackaging what they’ve just heard” service.
Don’t forget leaking disguised information about stealth projects, repackaging journalism and Google searches, and stealing ideas from research labs that will never capitalize on them. And of course rehashing history. This is called “trend projection.”
@T3chlusive “This chart does nothing and looks like graphics on one of those fake panels on the Enterprise in Star Trek.”
Those are fake? WTF!
I am so happy to see that we have survived the Trough of Disillusionment and are headed up the Slope of Enlightenment (Social Network Analysis).
I can now sleep at night.
I think Cloud Computing may have short circuited from clawing up the hype slope to down to the slough of despond already
Mobile Robots must be the geekiest toys for ages yet.
I would like to see where this Gartner’s Hype Cycle falls in this hyde cycle graph. And while we are graphs why not have a graph depicting the correctness of the past predictions/analysis made by companies like Gartner.
From my point of view - these are useless companies comprised of nincompoop consultants and produce useless reports/analysis/predictions for clueless managers who want impress thier disconnected exec.
this is one of many curves that gartner does for hype cycle, this should more rightly be labeled the “consumer” hype-cycle, this isn’t the one they publish for enterprise software and other actual useful business applications. I like the fact that microblogging, web 2.0, social platforms are on this curve and not the business curve, because they are fundamentally NOT business applications. You should ping gartner and ask for the business curve, might be more useful… but then again, this is TC, you dont really cover business you cover “social”
Not certain I agree with 3-D printing being 5-10 years out. I mean you can already get your own customized 3-D WoW figurine through Blizzard (Figureprints.com)
to give you an idea of the number of these things, here is the public list of available hype cycles for 2005…
http://www.gartner.com/DisplayDocument?id=484424
ok, after clicking around on the original article, it looks like you acknowledge that this is just one HC not the big one… ok. sorry for the rant…
like relationships
Gartner (and pretty much all analysts) are a freaking joke.
You want to do something fun?
Go pick up a Gartner 5 year projection that they published in 2003 and see how accurate their “predictions” are.
Monkeys dancing on keyboards do about as well and don’t charge a fortune for studies.
I am loving this graph, and will investigate my own insights later
Moreover…..
I’m a big lover of tablets, and have personally gone through the graph…
I’m not an iPhone lover, and can see through all the flaws….
But a mega iPhone, like 2 or 4 together, would serve as a great tablet.
(I used to have the Acer 100 tablet - and am waiting for one with better design, less heat, less weight, quick start, and simple… with on-screen keyboard.)
Does anybody know of anything like that?
~ Vik@CoGrow.com
Why would we need erasable paper if we’ve already got electronic paper?
Which would you rather carry: One-pound Kindle loaded with a thousand books, or a two-pound sheaf of paper in a binder clip that’s only one printed book, but can be erased and reprinted (at the usual mechanical speed)? Sorry Xerox, you can move directly to the Trough of Disillusionment.
I’m not sure why there are so many negative comments about this work.
Data Visualization itself is a growing technology, and forecasting trends is a fairly established art, if not a science.
Institute for the Future, Global Business Network, RAND, Hudson Institute, and various other thinktanks engage in this kind of work frequently for many clients that find it incredibly useful - such as my own Foundation, which focuses on education.
I too am surprised at the many negative comments. This type of trend graph has been around for ages, and it’s more about sociological effects rather than technological ones. It can be applied to adoption cycles of everything from radio to the automobile and (if accurate data were available) probably any new invention throughout history.
It basically mirrors typical human psychology. Imagine you buy a new item, like an iPhone when it first came out.
1. Wow, I gotta try that out.
2. BEST GADGET EVAR!!!
3. OK, my friends are tired of me showing it off, and frankly I’m tired of showing it off as well.
4. It’s been a year, and I don’t actually use all the whiz-bang features anymore, but it’s still a damn useful device.
Same thing on an individual level, only applied to society as a whole.
And, if the device sucks, at some point it drops off and you stop using it before getting to step 4.
Where would nanotechnology fit? I remember the big hype and all the funded startups around 2001-2003, but haven’t heard much of anything since, not even any breakthroughs, M&A or successes in the space.
I guess that’s a long race to run. Maybe it is a triangle next to RFID?
Great, but where does viritulization stand in the hype curve?
Velocity did a paper on the hype cycle a while ago. May be interesting reading if you want to dig further: http://www.velocitypartners.co.....ype-cycle/
The renowned Gartner Group’s latest Hype Cycle report places “Web 2.0″ in a “Trough of Disillusionment” … but for a few good chuckles, I suggest you Google the following and browse the first 20-30 listings:
failures Gartner Group
warnings Gartner Group
Gartner Group expects
Gartner Group predicts
The chart would be more meaningful if the data were compared to the increasing availability of cheap bandwidth. New technology tracks bandwidth. Has everyone forgotten the Telecosm?
Let’s put things in perspective here. Firstly, this is a conceptual process, proposed by Gartner as being universal, ie all new technologies will go through stages of hype, disillusionment and eventual productivity. Which is classic consulting and which is also not true, because some technologies go mainstream before the hype: take the touchscreen ultra-mobile internet browser (aka iPhone) for example. Where was the hype? the disillusionment? It went through these phases so fast that it was into the ‘plateau of productivity’ before most of the general public read about it in the newspaper (although there is still some residual disillusionment…) The curve is more relevant for some technologies (cold fusion: very steep curve, no return to earth) than others (dual-core intel processor: what curve? it was sloping directly up to the right in the shops when I first heard about it).
So with that irreverent commentary of the curve in mind, I’m going to try to place mobile advertising on it somewhere anyhow. The technology trigger was SMS, and there were certainly high expectations from direct marketing managers hoping to spam people via SMS rather than by post (’you’ve one lucky guy/gal, call this bank-account-draining premium number to claim your prize now!’) which led to major disillusionment amongst harassed mobile users. Now what is bringing mobile ads out of the quagmire and onto the ’slope of enlightenment’ towards the ‘plateau of productivity’ (*beuurgh* man who comes up with these terms?) is a shift towards contextual mobile advertising in the form of relevant links on content sites, search queries, and in-game ads, plus a stronger focus on extending CRM into the mobile space. So where is mobile advertising on the curve? If you’re a dinosaur still doing bulk SMS campaigns, you’re in the trough. If you’re exploiting the power of sponsored links on mobile web pages and in-game contextual ads, you’re well on the way to the plateau…
Now confirmed. Majority, not all (there are several very intelligent comments in here), of TechCrunch readers have no clue as to what they are talking about.
It is a hype cycle for chris sake. If you don’t understand what they are built for, don’t comment.
The Gartner Hype Cycle is way of communicating the Research we do into various technologies and technology enabled business ideas. It helps our clients compare things according to risk and maturity - so they can make the right adoption timing choices. Our Hype Cycles are are published primarily to guide people who are in the teams supporting roles like enterprise architect, CIO, CTO in medium and large companies that spend a lot of money buyng and applying IT. However we know that technology providers and investors also get value from the overview they provide. As you can see from the comments here - they do generate a lot of debate! We publish many hype cycles and update them annually. The one Erick Schonfeld posted here is about ‘emerging technologies’ other example areas are things like Automotive Electronics and Storage Technologies.
The Hype Cycle was originally developed in the mid 90’s by my colleague Jackie Fenn. You can hear her explain how it gets used by technology and business decision makers in this podcast. http://www.gartner.com/it/prod.....8_2575.jsp